Sunday, August 16, 2015


The past few weeks have been pig heaven for an economics freak and I plead guilty to being one.  For quite a long time I have said we have never came out of the 08 recession which may have actually been a depression.  Somehow we struggled through  7 years just hanging on by our teeth.  Forget about the stock market rise being anything real, it's now simply a playground for the big money players who coupled with government drive the market in whatever direction they choose.

In a year where the US pulled a coup in Ukraine that failed to suck Russia into a confrontation and installed a Nazi looking government in place of a pro Russian one.  Tried every trick in the book to sucker them into a conflict , none of it worked.

Then Russia and China joined forces to form new economic and business ventures which many other nations joined in to form a powerfull force in world economics.  Not saying the US is running scared but their next action might bring you to think so.

They and  Saudi Arabia dumped the price of oil by 50% in an attempt to bankrupt Russia.  That plus putting sanctions on Russia to put more hurt on them.  Russia replied with sanction against the EU putting the hurt on everyone.  Russia pulled a lot of tricks out of their hat and while the damage has been done it looks as of this writing they will be ok.

Meantime back in the world of economics the effect of all the shenanigans is starting to show thru.  China's stock market lost 25%.  In an attempt to increase their exports which has fallen to a multi year low they devalued their currency twice.  Making their exports cheaper and our exports more expensive.  Their exports haven't picked up and ours remains unchanged.

All commodities are down to their historic lows, most have fallen past the cost of their production.
Led by oil, all commodities are headed down with no bottom in sight.  Producers of some commodities will not make it through this mess.  Frackers are at the head of that line with  some due to fold within the month when their credit lines have to be redone.  With little to show that they are profitable they will probably have to go bankrupt. Keep your eye on the commodities market they will probably be the first indicator of a turnaround.  It won't be tomorrow and it could be another Great Depression, except it will probably be called after the fact as "THE GREATnionsEST DEPRESSION"

Every economic analyst of not has called this as another recession and some are calling it a coming depression.  Here are just a few of their comments.

With Greece on the ropes, and a bunch more of the Eu  in the same financial fix more and more will have to default.  Many other countries are in the same bind each and every one of them driven to destruction by damn derivatives issued by killer American banks.  We see American cities driven to bankruptcy, pension funds being stolen in an attempt to remain solvent.     Unions busted, wages cut, benefits cut, all in an attempt to fix their  books.

All the American talking heads keep saying we are in a recovery, never mention the factors that say we aren't.  A consumer who has lost significant reduction of income cannot support a system based on consumers spending , they just don't have the clout they use to and their credit is limited out.  There is nothing to drive the economy.

It is a very troubling time, one would like to think all will be well, but when say that to my mirror  "IT SCREAMS BACK BULLSHIT' In a more honest moment , I know things are not all right, you don't have to be very smart to know all is not well.

Then you take a look at our current crop of presidential candidates and with the exception of Bernie
Sanders not one of them to date has given us anyhope.  It will take a Sanders to turn this country around , any of the others will just put further hurt on us. I hope after reading this you have a better idea of what you have to do.



  1. It will be interesting to see what the IMF does at their next meeting in Sept or Oct. The talk is they may have the votes to make the Chinese Yuan one of the international currencies which is predicted to have a lowering affect on the US dollar and stock market since banks could use the Yuan ie the USD for trade.
    The main reason to adopt the Yuan was because of the large and growing Chinese export market. Now, with the new development of a 25% cutback, it will be interesting.

  2. Been down so long don't know which way is up!

  3. "All commodities are down to their historic lows, most have fallen past the cost of their production." Wow. I knew oil was below cost to produce, but most commodities? Yikes! That is a huge red flag on the condition of the world economy.
    I would add to your European woes the huge 'illegal' immigration problem. The number of desperate refugees washing up on Europe's shores in leaking rafts, babies in arms has increased four fold from last year. Last year was a record. BBC covers it every day. Although never mentioned, a lot of these are climate change refugees. More and more people fighting for less and less resources.
    China's stock market is a farce. A joke. If you stop 1/2 of the trading, force buybacks, you close the stock market if it dips to low and your government buys the trades it does allow, you don't have a stock market...period. A major U.S. investor just divested all their business with China.
    Economies are collapsing everywhere. Hard to see where this China/Russia collaboration will go.
    It is Bernie and no one else for me. I am no longer voting for the lesser of the corporate-owned evils.