$43 HOT DOGS WITH MUSTARD AND PICKLE BUT NO CHIPS!

Times are tough in DAVOS.  The little rich guys and their families are over their for their annual "HOW WE ARE GOING TO FUCK THE REST OF THE PEOPLE" meeting where the price of a hot dog is $43.  Yep times are tough in Davos.

One of the I got rich off of Hedge Funds fellows in a speech said we are going to have to learn to do with less.  (he flew his wife, children and two nannies to Davos) yep that's less.

They meet in secret, countries craft treaties in secret, countries lie through their asses on national statistics and we the masses soak it up like good beef gravy on bread.  Some do understand we are mushrooms being fed bullshit to make us grow.  News flash , we are still being fed bullshit but it don't cause growth anymore.

2015 is not going to be a fun year by any measure.  Failures I have been talking about may finally show up this year ironically by the surprising drop in oil prices.

The drop in oil prices will make one of my very early predictions that Shale oil was not the great 100 year supply of oil and certainly  will not make us energy independent.  You can already see the decline in drilling rigs and the dramatic decline of aging wells.  Three years and done is the general rule.  Their costs run about $80/bl to produce they weren't making money at 100 oil , they sure won't make it at 40 dollar oil.  Their bankruptcies will cause huge market disruptions as they have been financed by funny money vehicles, that have the ability to bring down the TBTF banks.

Needless to say if you have been reading this blog for long you know I don't have a rosy horizon for the US or the world.

The US has mounted a ill disguised attack on Russia by using Ukraine as the bait, the anticipated results have not happened.  Instead Putin set out to make huge deals with China, Turkey and others  that will make our puny efforts to bring him down fail. In gives me great pain to root for Putin in this ill planned attempt to bring him down.  Not thought about by us was how the rest of the EU would react to the sanctions placed on Russia.  Some of the EU folks lost 50% of their exports do to those sanctions and will probably drop out one by one making us look like fools .  Which we are.

So as a reward for your faithful reading of my blog I am enclosing the following link to JAMES HOWARD KUNTSLER'S 2015 PREDICTIONS 

His piece is quite long but tough it out, you will end up with a clear picture of what to expect the coming year and how you should be planning to survive in the future.

DEAD ON ARRIVAL SINCE DAY ONE

On the day President Obama was sworn in a group of top republicans met at a restaurant in DC to plan how they were going to destroy his presidency.  If they had met to plan on how to fix this country things might look better today, but they didn't and there not.

Now six years out , another State of the Union speech , and another DEAD ON ARRIVAL response by the republicans.  Even though there were absolutely no programs put forth in the speech.

Anyone who has been reading this blog for any length of time knows I have no love of republican plans for this country.  Every day they prove to me that they do not deserve to serve as they clearly have their corporation ties at the forefront of their actions.

Current examples the first two bills they put forth in the congress they control were the KEYSTONE PIPELINE and  to roll back Obama's immigration reform.  Both bills that the president vows to veto.

I don't see how this country can keep on voting these smucks into office when they know their interests will not be served.

We are once again teetering on the edge of another financial collapse, a time when we need a congress working together with the president to avoid another collapse.   Somehow we need to get their attention to take action to help us not put us further in the hole..  

LOSS OF MORAL COMPASS OR JUST MEAN SPIRITED

Before you even start to think about the next elections please take a look around the country and see what our votes have bought us till now.  Inside this article are links to the views of some and to statistics that will make you cry.  So struggle through them and let me know what you think.

The first article today that smacked me in the face was this ONE.   51% of all school children qualify for free or reduced prices.  Over half , to me that was a startling fact.  Should have been because I have known for decades that a whole bunch of folks out there are not making enough money to have the basic needs of life. 

As the chart above shows median household income has fallen $5000 since 2008 that is a huge chunk of income that no longer is there.  Have you ever experience a pay cut of 50% ?  I did on leaving the Navy after 11.5 years.  Took awhile to get it back but with a little luck it was accomplished.  Point being if you have never had to rub two pennies together to make you budget work , you need to stop and think how you would handle it.

If you take a good long look at the following stats you have to wonder what the hell is going on.  In 2012 almost 25 million earn less than $25K.  46million live in poverty.  4 million single moms live in poverty. Married in poverty 2 million.  This in the proclaimed richest country in the world.  The only conclusion you can come to those that are more fortunate are stingy as hell.

The single largest employer in the US dear ole Uncle Walmart pays most less than 8 bucks an hour.Their employee indoctrination show them how to apply and qualify for government assistance, food stamps , Medicaid etc.  Do you rotting fish??

 Wealthy folk think it is too easy to be poor, and that they should have to work for the benefits or not get them at all.  They include everything in their thinking, SS, Medicare, medicaid, food stamps, unemployment, disability.  The wealthy weep at how much taxes they have to pay , but when you look at the actual numbers they don't point to that fact.  It does point to the low income bunch pay 10%  , the middle income 9% and the rich pay 5%.  So what the hell are they talking about.  Don't even look at what corporations pay , most pay next to nothing to absolutely nothing to huge rebates.

Here comes the politics folks.  Just two short years away we have to pick a new president and if we are smart we will give this person a congress he can work with.  For my money , looking at the front runners today we have little choice.  With most republicans featuring ideas like Rand Paul looking to cut social security and medicare (most of  the other contenders say the same) to pay for more tac cuts for the rich, which I have shown you they already pay less than all the rest of us.  So for my money the republicans don't deserve even a glance. 

So how about the Democrat side.  Dear ole Hillary is the supposed front runner and I don't think she is the one to do us right.  Hawkish , pro business and part of the ole boy gang rules her out of my  book.

So who is left, only two at present Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.  Elizabeth says she won't run but pressure is being put on her to run.  So there is hope, but you have to pay attention.

SPRITITED  spirited 

GLOBAL WAR 1??

The drop in oil prices we are told is due to a decrease in demand, but as I said in a recent post I believe this is a political move to bring Russia , Venezuela and Iran to their knees.  The following chart would appear to verify my findings.

This IEA chart indicated that supply and demand are pretty much in balance through 2015.  Perplexing at best because other charts would indicate something else.  IEA is generally thought of as reliable data although it sometimes misses the mark.

This article from RT call this event as geopolitical and just the first of Global commodity wars.  Water and food are also candidates for wars.   We have read in other places the shortage of water in many parts of the world.  You also have heard that the great glaciers of the world are currently in a rapid melt stage and these glaciers provide much of the water in various countries around the world.

It doesn't matter if your a believer in Global Warming or not your naked eyeball look at the great glaciers of the world shows that they are in fact melting and at a fast pace.

We all know that in many places in the world food is scarce and getting worse all the time..

So is this oil price drop just the first shoe to drop in a string of global wars.  I believe it is, and the good old USA is behind this all the way. Other countries are being hurt worse than Russia so expect sanctions to be dropped soon.

When the propaganda war against Russia using the Ukraine blow up a result of Russian interference failed to get the world against Russia we needed another tool.  Drive down the price of oil to destroy the economies of Russia , Venezuela and Iran would appear to be the next tool they are using.

While this has had an immediate effect on those economies they have not brought the Russian bear to it's knees.  In fact Putin and negotiated several huge deals for oil, formed the BRIC economic pace, created an alternative to the IMF for this group, unhinged oil from the dollar and cut off gas shipments to the EU and told them to hook up to the line to Turkey.

It would appear to me that Russia and the BRIC group are setting up long term arrangements that will effectively diminish  the US significance on the world stage.

Meantime in the war rooms of the US, they are talking WW3 and the ability to win a nuclear war.  OK so are leaders are completely bonkers and only checker players in the world game of chess.

So tighten your seat belts and get ready for a rough ride...
    

PIVOT TO AISA THE NEW AXIS OF EVIL

All Americans should look in the mirror to see the new Axis of Evil ,yep, it's us.   Several years back this event was announced and at the time it seemed to be a yawner.  Then Ukraine popped up on the horizon. The US engineered an overthrow of the elected government and installed a pro Nazi regime controlled and funded by the US.

The next move was a pure propaganda program to accuse Russia of invading Ukraine and taking back of the Crimea.

First Crimea wanted back under Russian control and had an election to do just that. There were all kinds of propaganda out there claiming that Russia had invaded the Ukraine,the truth being  there were already thousands of troops there for a very long time.

The next event to pop up was the shoot down of a passenger jet supposedly by a Russian missile.  When the truth came out it was actually shot down by two fighters from the Ukraine.  Rumors of Russian troops invading the Ukraine proved also to be false.  Clouded over some by some Russians going into the Ukraine to aid the rebels.

Putin of course was demonized as the Great Satan.  He proved to be much cooler under fire than all US   officials lumped together.  Russia provided evidence of what really was happening that could be easily proved.  Our evidence on the other hand got shot down time after time.  Strangely important evidence started disappearing from the scene.

As evidence appeared that the US was trying to isolate Russia and China  too of course, Putin went on the attack cutting several oil and gas deals, with China and Turkey and other trade partners.  Forming the BRIC  nation into an economic power house that threatens to remove the dollar as the worlds reserve currency.  Started trading oil in their own currencies cutting the dollar our of the mix.

Now a trump card was played by the US and Saudi allowing the dramatic fall in oil prices.  There are those that believe it was simply a matter of supply and demand and I am presenting a chart next that says that is possible.  However as you might already guess I think its much more clandestine than that.  It doesn't make sense to me that Saudi would not simply cut production to keep prices high.  Simple math says that would be the right thing to do barring politics.  If you pump 1 barrel of oil at $100 you have to pump two barrels at $ 50 which move would you have made.  Anyway here's the chart make up your own mind.

 

I place the following 2 pieces that shed some light on our Pivot to Asia and I believe the real driving force of all the recent events.  HERE , HERE.  This last post shows China's move to counter US moves.

If as suspect that all this action is a preplanned US plan to control Asia it would appear at this time the US is playing checkers and Putin and China are playing chess.  From the US side of things low oil prices will kill fracking and tar sands operations as their cost of production is much, much higher.  If all those fracking company folds it takes with them all those funny money derivatives packages just waiting to explode.  If they explode other derivatives packages will fold two and will probably take the rest of the market with it.

To further complicate things other commodities have fallen like a rock too. Gold, Silver and the Ruble amongst others.  I suspect manipulation by the US is behind at least Gold and Silver.  If you are a supply and demand Geek your theory falls apart when you look at gold and silver, both have demand greater than supply.

Of course all the above is just my opinion and I would love to hear yours.  I could be wrong, but don't count on it.  

WHAT EUROPEANS AND THIS AMERICAN ASK

An American traveling  in Europe is asked the same questions where ever he goes on the strange thinking of Americans.  They happen to be a lot like the questions I ask myself on the thinking of my fellow citizens.  The questions:

1. Whey don't we have universal health care , they all do.
2. Free education all the way through college , most of them do.
3. A strong social safety net , unemployment and unemployable.
4. Old age complete care.
5. Unexplained wars.
6. Our love of guns.
7. Deadly financial instruments.
8.  A congress which does essentially nothing.

There are obviously more questions but these are among my biggest questions and they seem to the same.  Now before you jump in and suggest if I love them so much why don't I just go there?  The answer to that is quite simple, I'd rather stay and try  to convince all of you that we are going down the right path.  Fight not run is my mantra.

When Social Safety nets free to all are suggested you hear the same cry from way to many people"nothing is free"  only in the USA is that true.  Most of Europe do, and what a relief it must be to not have to worry about health.

What those who say that there is no free lunch should be asking is :  How does an average family making $53000 pay for health care, retirement, higher education who that sum of money.
An example a Swede making the same amount of money I do pays 25K I pay only 6K but I have to pay for all the stuff they get for free.

DANGER !WILL ROBISNON-DANGER!

The drop in oil prices on the surface for the average citizen seems like a good thing.  We have a little more change in our pockets to spend on other things.  It could be the good thing that ends up biting us in the ass.

Why, you scream.  Well it's pretty simple ,really, there is 440 TRlILION dollars worth of INTEREST RATE DERIVATIVES are sitting out there on the long side of interest rates.   Cheap oil is causing many firms (like fracking firms) who have to borrow large amount of money to stay in business.  Those companies among others have large borrowing requirements which already are driving interest rates up.

Predictions that oil prices will remain low for a good while almost guarantees that those interest rate derivatives will cause a economic bust bigger than anything any of us has ever seen.

This same investment tool is behind the down grading of pension funds since they use derivatives to try and keep their returns on targets.

If interest triggers this event it will be unstoppable.

HERE'S THE STORY BEHIND THIS PIECE